Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 3.680407 4.025195 4.427203 4.942205 5.603817 6.457331 7.707357
2025-01-12 3.139524 3.534136 4.026686 4.716041 5.716413 7.250324 10.216550
2025-01-19 2.858727 3.273346 3.812837 4.612922 5.880839 8.127509 14.020850
2025-01-26 2.739515 3.190793 3.803580 4.771457 6.474397 10.163869 28.816875
2025-02-02 2.676401 3.168820 3.866228 5.042996 7.381255 14.167353 NaN
2025-02-09 2.565713 3.066286 3.792826 5.069307 7.821421 18.102459 NaN
2025-02-16 2.479393 2.988561 3.744577 5.125575 8.366635 25.505451 NaN
2025-02-23 2.350377 2.838572 3.567245 4.910531 8.129757 27.079096 NaN
2025-03-02 2.283187 2.774201 3.519195 4.933286 8.566591 42.804179 NaN
2025-03-09 2.216680 2.705946 3.457765 4.918258 8.897086 85.560167 NaN
2025-03-16 2.137822 2.614519 3.350756 4.794514 8.826271 152.164316 NaN
2025-03-23 2.107880 2.594928 3.360968 4.915794 9.693123 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 2.023918 2.491071 3.225413 4.714323 9.275078 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.944394 2.391413 3.092657 4.508841 8.797685 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.888402 2.325701 3.014287 4.415012 8.746735 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.873660 2.322526 3.042249 4.559180 9.789909 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.872873 2.340665 3.108390 4.804932 11.705148 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.841913 2.309418 3.083809 4.828665 12.485992 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.816275 2.285435 3.070636 4.879373 13.597021 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.762584 2.214464 2.967385 4.685233 12.626888 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.737556 2.188931 2.946922 4.705820 13.468032 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.709944 2.158179 2.915004 4.692225 14.056012 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.672466 2.110271 2.848869 4.580105 13.621274 NaN NaN